Experimental Flu Trends for Mexico Google Trends Flu

Experimental Flu Trends for Mexico

In November 2008 we launched Google Trends Flu, after finding a close relationship between the number of people searching for terms related to influenza and the number of people expressing symptoms of influenza. Google Trends Flu may be able to detect influenza outbreaks more quickly than other systems because it considers the activity of the flu in almost real time.

In response to recent research conducted by public health officials have tried to use the search activity in Mexico to help monitor levels of the evolution of swine influenza in humans. Experimental Flu Trends For Mexico, as may have guessed, very experimental. However, starting early in the week of 19 to April 25, the system has detected increases in searches for symptoms related to influenza in Mexico City and other states.

In the United States were able to validate our estimates using data from the monitoring system operated by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States (CDC for short). Our data for Mexico have not been checked in the same way, but we have seen that users of Google in Mexico (as well as around the world) also search for terms related to the flu when they experience symptoms similar to those of the disease. Given the impressive level of attention that has been given to the swine influenza, our model attempts to filter these searches related to the topic more generally of those who may be experiencing the symptoms.

Although we would prefer to validate data and improve our accuracy, we decided to make a public release today to help health officials, as well as the concerned people to take an updated picture of the movement of the outbreak of swine influenza . Just as in our system Flu Trends, we provide estimates for several states of Mexico are updated daily. Our current estimates of influenza activity in the U.S. are still generally low, as is expected, given the relatively few confirmed cases of swine influenza. However, we keep an eye on data to identify any peak of activity.

We are deeply conscious of the confidence our customers place in us and our responsibility to protect your privacy. Experimental Flu Trends for Mexico - as well as we do on Google Trends Flu - can not be used to identify individual users. The patterns make sense only in large populations of users of the Google search engine. We hope that this experiment provides useful information to society.

For any update on influenza and information on how to stay healthy during the outbreak, visit the site on the influenza of the Ministry of Public Health of Mexico or the CDC for the United States.

By: Ana Paula Sierra Blanco, Head of Communications, Colombia and Mexico Google