Of influenza A are still more questions than answers. Yesterday, the journal "Science" announced the publication of a study by British researchers and Mexicans, which fit some of the pieces of this complicated puzzle. That first draft warns that the new flu originated in Mexico, has spread through the country more strongly than previously thought and is very contagious. The good news is that this prediction is estimated that it will not be as aggressive as the dreaded flu of 1918, it ended with millions of lives in the middle of World War II.
As of yesterday, WHO reported the existence of 4,700 cases worldwide, the study of "Science" in Mexico estimates that only could have been infected until April 30 between 6,000 and 32,000 people.
The H1N1 virus is more infectious than those that circulate during flu season. Using various methods to estimate what is the capacity of transmitting the virus, researchers say that infected more than one infected individual influenza infection between 1.4 and 1.6, calculated. Tourists and residents have the same chance of infection, the authors say.
The investigation places the beginning of the epidemic in mid-February in La Gloria, a small village in Veracruz with an intensive pig farm. There had already been placed on patient zero, a boy named Edgar five years. In La Gloria, half the population suffered from respiratory infections. These problems, especially those under 15 years.
With the information available, the authors support the decision of the World Health Organization to lift the 5 level of pandemic alert. And they confirm their pandemic potential. "Our analysis suggests that the epidemic will be similar to other pandemics that have been experienced in the twentieth century. It is difficult to quantify the impact on human health, but we would be similar to those occurring in 1957 and 1968, "says Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, lead author of the study.
Whatever virulence, Ferguson's team is clear that the impact will vary between countries. "Depends on the situation of sanitation and public health measures taken in each case.
The alert can wait 6
Yesterday the World Health Organization insisted that he upgraded to the highest stage of alert level until they have evidence that there has been a sustained transmission from person to person in a region other than North America. 2 The number of WHO, Keiji Fukuda, said that all new cases are related to travel to Mexico or United States or
very close circle of people, but has not spread the infection to the community.
The influenza virus is unpredictable. "We do not know if there will be few or many cases of severe disease.
As of yesterday, WHO reported the existence of 4,700 cases worldwide, the study of "Science" in Mexico estimates that only could have been infected until April 30 between 6,000 and 32,000 people.
The H1N1 virus is more infectious than those that circulate during flu season. Using various methods to estimate what is the capacity of transmitting the virus, researchers say that infected more than one infected individual influenza infection between 1.4 and 1.6, calculated. Tourists and residents have the same chance of infection, the authors say.
The investigation places the beginning of the epidemic in mid-February in La Gloria, a small village in Veracruz with an intensive pig farm. There had already been placed on patient zero, a boy named Edgar five years. In La Gloria, half the population suffered from respiratory infections. These problems, especially those under 15 years.
With the information available, the authors support the decision of the World Health Organization to lift the 5 level of pandemic alert. And they confirm their pandemic potential. "Our analysis suggests that the epidemic will be similar to other pandemics that have been experienced in the twentieth century. It is difficult to quantify the impact on human health, but we would be similar to those occurring in 1957 and 1968, "says Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, lead author of the study.
Whatever virulence, Ferguson's team is clear that the impact will vary between countries. "Depends on the situation of sanitation and public health measures taken in each case.
The alert can wait 6
Yesterday the World Health Organization insisted that he upgraded to the highest stage of alert level until they have evidence that there has been a sustained transmission from person to person in a region other than North America. 2 The number of WHO, Keiji Fukuda, said that all new cases are related to travel to Mexico or United States or
very close circle of people, but has not spread the infection to the community.
The influenza virus is unpredictable. "We do not know if there will be few or many cases of severe disease.
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